Inhaltszusammenfassung

The theory of the ‘(first) demographic transition’ (DT) still has considerablepractical relevance in the field of population research. For instance, the DT servesas a conceptual model that underlies the UN’s population projections, and iscentral to the discussion around the so-called ‘demographic dividend’. Althoughit was first described 90 years ago, several questions related to the DT remainopen or need verification. In particular, there is de...The theory of the ‘(first) demographic transition’ (DT) still has considerablepractical relevance in the field of population research. For instance, the DT servesas a conceptual model that underlies the UN’s population projections, and iscentral to the discussion around the so-called ‘demographic dividend’. Althoughit was first described 90 years ago, several questions related to the DT remainopen or need verification. In particular, there is debate about the question ofwhat the indispensable triggers of the DT are. Assumptions regarding the primarycauses include increased education for women and related changes in values, aswell as economic development, urbanisation, migration, and the democratisationprocess. This paper aims to contribute to DT-related research using an innovativeresearch approach. Our study covers all 102 countries with populations that haveundergone the DT between 1950 and 2010. Among these countries, we identified25 populations that passed through this process at an exceptionally high tempo. Werefer to this process as ‘express transitioning’ (ET), and seek to identify its maindeterminants by comparing the ET populations with the populations of the other DTcountries. The data we use are taken from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer, theUN World Population Prospects, the UN World Urbanization Prospects, the WorldBank Group, and the Center for Systematic Peace. Our analysis is based on ratherdescriptive methods, including ANOVA tests and bivariate correlations. We find thatthe urbanisation level and the education dynamics are most closely associated withET, whereas other variables show no significant association with the ET process.» weiterlesen» einklappen

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DDC Sachgruppe:
Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie